(1) With every swing I can make a forecast, or prediction of where my ball will end up. And after each swing I can get a better picture of the error on my prediction.
(2) From one club to the next (say from 7-iron to 8-iron), my best-guess prediction should change by some distance (eg 140 yds to 130yds, respectively).
As long as the range of my prediction error is much greater than the range of the best-guess between clubs, it seems reasonable to carry just one of those clubs, save myself the weight, and focus on lowering the range of my error with it. This is a little bit like an idea from the economist Richard Ashley.
To give you an idea of how good a player I am, I added my third club last week.
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